Innovation That Matters

Crowd-finding the next blockbuster

Publishing & Media

Think consumers can predict the next big book, CD, television show or movie better than top producers and publishing houses can? Media Predict challenges users to put their virtual money where their mouths are with an online prediction market game, where players buy and sell shares based on how well they think new entertainment ventures might do in the real marketplace. Here’s how it works: when users register, they get 5,000 virtual dollars to begin investing. They can scan the markets for book proposals, up-and-coming musical acts, script treatments and TV pilots. Each is valued in virtual dollars per share based on perceived potential. If shares of a particular book proposal are going for 55 dollars, for instance, the book has about a 55% chance of being published. If a project seems like it might take off, a wise investor can put his or her money behind it. Or, conversely, he or she can sell if stock seems like it might plummet. In doing so, players drive the market value—and those who have a keen eye for the next big blockbuster get rewarded for it. When a deal goes through—for instance, if a book proposal gets signed to a publisher—shares pay off at USD 100 each. And on the flipside, when a venture doesn’t succeed, share value bottoms out at USD 0. With new markets being added every day, Media Predict makes for an addictive pastime for media lovers—but it’s more than just a game. Similar prediction markets have had an amazing track record for forecasting election results, economic indicators, sales levels and more. And some media giants are already taking note. Touchstone Books, an imprint of Simon & Schuster, has agreed to publish the top-rated Media Predict book proposal by October 9th, hoping the wisdom of the crowds while provide a better barometer of success than a publisher’s gut instinct can. Entrepreneurs who want to stay on the pulse of what’s hot in the entertainment world may want to keep their eyes on this one! We also think Media Predict could do with a few niche and localized siblings. More from the crowdsourcing arena: MyFootballClub CrowdSpirit and Sitepoint. Spotted by: Bill McMahon



Download PDF